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5 questions heading into Trump's State of the Union address

By STEVEN SLOAN and STEVE PEOPLES  -  AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump says he has a lot to talk about tonight.

He's returning to Congress to deliver a State of the Union address at a consequential moment in his presidency, with his approval ratings near an all-time low and restive supporters waiting for him to deliver more tangibly on their struggles with the cost of living.

On top of that, the Supreme Court just declared illegal the tariffs that have been central to his second term. And the foreign policy challenges he promised to fix easily now don't look so simple with another potential military strike against Iran looming.

The narrow Republican majority in Congress that has done little to counter Trump's expansive vision of power is at risk of falling away after this year's midterm elections, when their respective self interests may collide.

Here are some questions we're thinking about heading into the speech.

Will Trump attack key U.S. institutions?

Trump has famously shown little restraint in attacking his rivals on social media. But it would be something altogether different if he used the biggest stage in politics to go after key U.S. institutions on Tuesday night.

Last week, Trump unleashed a torrent of deeply personal attacks against the Supreme Court, which struck down his far-reaching tariff policy. He questioned the justices’ patriotism, said they were an “embarrassment to their families," and suggested, without evidence, that they were being influenced by foreign powers.

Many of those justices are likely to be seated at the front of the House chamber as Trump delivers his address. Will Trump criticize the justices — who lead an equal branch of the U.S. government — to their faces with millions of Americans watching?

At the same time, we'll be watching whether Trump wades into one of his favorite topics: Election fraud.

Trump has intensified unfounded allegations of election fraud as this fall's midterm elections come into view, still insisting that the 2020 election was stolen, despite repeated judicial rulings and Republican-led investigations that found no such thing.

Should he repeat such false claims on this stage, it could undermine the integrity of the 2026 elections — something that election experts have been worried about for months.

How will Trump address affordability and immigration?

Trump will deliver his speech at the outset of a challenging election year for his fellow Republicans, who have a tenuous hold on control of Congress. Much of the GOP's challenge has centered on a sense among voters that the party hasn't done enough to bring down prices.

The White House insists it is aware of the economic anxiety among voters and is working to address it. But Trump consistently has trouble staying on message. During a trip to Georgia last week that was intended to focus on the economy, the president instead highlighted debunked claims of election fraud and pushed his proposal for voter identification requirements. When he addressed affordability, he said it was a problem created by Democrats that he has now “solved.”

Trump's tone on immigration could also be notable. Republicans found themselves on defense after two U.S. citizens were killed in Minneapolis last month by federal agents who were conducting an aggressive immigration enforcement operation. While Trump has kept up his hardline rhetoric on undocumented immigrants, his administration has begun to draw down agents in Minneapolis. The president told New York Gov. Kathy Hochul last week that he would direct future immigration enforcement surges where they were wanted.

What doesn’t he say?

In some cases, what Trump doesn’t say may be as important as what he does.

The biggest issue he may ignore: The Jeffrey Epstein files.

Few issues have irked voters in both parties more than the Trump administration’s handling of the investigation into Epstein, the major political donor who presided over a years-long underage sex trafficking ring that involved some of the world’s most powerful people.

After initially balking, Trump’s team at the Department of Justice has released millions of pages of documents — although many more are expected. And while key figures are named — including Trump, who insists he's exonerated by the documents — federal prosecutors have yet to charge anyone.

Among other issues Trump may not touch: Skyrocketing health care premiums that affected millions of Americans after Trump’s GOP let Obamacare subsidies expire last month. We’re also curious whether he addresses the two Americans killed by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis last month: Renee Good and Alex Pretti. Their deaths, and the harsh tactics used by agents in general, have sparked massive protests in Minnesota and beyond.

What about foreign policy?

Trump promised a quick and easy end to conflicts across the globe when he was elected. A year later, Russia's war in Ukraine continues to rage, there's a fragile ceasefire in war-torn Gaza and Trump is threatening a major military strike against Iran just eight months after he claimed the U.S. had “obliterated” the nation's nuclear facilities.

And let's not forget about his military action in Venezuela less than two months ago in which U.S. forces snatched its leader, Nicolas Maduro. Trump has said repeatedly that he's going to run the country.

Trump supporters may cheer his America First rhetoric, but the Republican president is showing far more globalist tendencies one year into his second term.

And the prospect of war with Iran is real. Trump has already built up the largest U.S. military presence in the Middle East in decades. Last week he warned the Iranian regime that “bad things will happen” soon if a nuclear deal is not reached.

How will Democrats respond?

Democrats were still adjusting to Trump’s return to power when he last addressed Congress — and it showed.

During his 2025 joint address, Democrats entered the chamber with signs containing messages ranging from “Save Medicaid” and “Musk Steals” to simply “False.” Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, heckled Trump at one point, prompting his ejection from the chamber.

The signs were widely criticized as contrived and Green’s protest was something of a distraction. For voters who were outraged by Trump’s aggressive use of power during his opening months in office, the scene didn’t offer much confidence that Democrats were in a position to serve as an effective check on the White House.

Democrats are aiming to avoid a repeat of last year’s tumult.

Expect fewer signs and possibly fewer Democrats in the chamber at all. Dozens of lawmakers have said they won’t attend the speech, with some planning to attend rival events in Washington.

That may help avoid some of last year’s theatrics. But it might do little to encourage frustrated voters that Democrats have a coherent, effective message a decade into Trump’s political rise.

And after Democratic governors boycotted a White House dinner with Trump over the weekend, skipping the State of the Union may only reinforce the sense that America’s two main political parties are charting fundamentally different courses.

Abigail Spanberger, Virginia’s newly inaugurated governor, will give the Democrats’ official response to Trump.

How long will he go?

Trump is rarely one to self-edit. His speech last year — technically a joint address and not the State of the Union — clocked nearly one hour and 40 minutes. That was the longest speech to a joint session of Congress — and Trump may want to notch another record.

“It’s going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about,” he said on Monday.

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