WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales at U.S. retailers and restaurants increased modestly in September as resilient consumers moderated their spending after splurging over the summer.
Sales rose 0.2% in September from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, in a report delayed more than a month because of the government shutdown. Sales jumped 0.6% in July and August and 1% in June. Numerous reports on inflation, employment, spending, and growth remain delayed and the government won’t likely be caught up until late December.
The retail sales figures suggest that Americans pulled back a bit in September as many households are still struggling with high prices for groceries, rent, and many imported goods hit by tariffs. Still, the modest increase in spending may lift the economy’s growth to a solid 3% or higher annual rate in the July-September quarter, economists forecast, after a sluggish 1.6% expansion in the first half of the year.
At the same time, hiring has been weak and the unemployment rate has ticked higher, which could drag down consumer spendin g and the broader economy if it worsens. Unemployment rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in nearly four years, from 4.3%, according to the delayed monthly jobs report released last week.
Higher-income consumers are driving much of the gains, according to data from Bank of America and reports from retailers such as Walmart, as l ower-income shoppers seek bargains and are more likely to spend more on necessities. .
Tuesday’s report comes before the crucial winter holiday season kicks off this weekend, when retailers earn as much as a fifth of their revenues. The National Retail Federation and other forecasters expect modest sales gains this year, compared with last year’s holiday, with the NRF projecting that sales will top $1 trillion for the first time.
Separately, wholesale prices rose 0.3% in September from August, the Labor Department said Tuesday, and 2.7% compared with a year ago.
The retail sales figures land as many economic data are coming in mixed. Wage growth has slowed this year and is just modestly above inflation, a trend that is likely driving Americans’ concerns around affordability.
Wages, on average, rose 3.8% in September from a year ago, the government said last week. That is only modestly above September’s annual inflation rate of 3%.
But for many Americans, particularly those earning lower incomes or for older workers, wages are rising more slowly and are clearly trailing inflation.
The Bank of America Institute estimates that for the poorest one-third of households, pay grew just 1% in October from a year earlier, while the highest one-third saw their wages rise 3.7%. The gap between higher- and lower-income households matches an August figure as the widest in nearly a decade, the bank said.
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