WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's expansive new tariffs flips on its head a decades-long global trend of lower trade barriers and is likely, economists say, to raise prices for Americans by thousands of dollars each year while sharply slowing the U.S. economy.

The White House is gambling that other countries will also suffer enough pain that they will open up their economies to more American exports, leading to negotiations that would reduce the tariffs imposed Wednesday.

Or, the White House hopes, more companies — both American and foreign — will reverse their moves toward global supply chains and bring more production to the United States to avoid higher import taxes.

But a key question for the Trump administration will be how Americans react to the tariffs. If prices rise noticeably and jobs are lost, voters could turn against the duties and make it harder to keep them in place for the length of time needed to encourage companies to return to the U.S.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates that all the Trump administration's tariffs would cost the average household $3,800 in higher prices this year. The figure includes the impact of the 10% universal tariff announced Wednesday, plus much higher tariffs on about 60 countries, as well as previous import taxes on steel, aluminum and cars. Inflation could top 4% this year, from 2.8% currently, while the economy may barely grow, according to estimates by Nationwide Financial.

And investors turned thumbs down on the new duties Thursday, with the broad S&P 500 index dropping 4.1% in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones plunged more than 1,400 points. The only sector not selling off was consumer staples, which consists of companies that sell basic food stocks.

The average U.S. tariff could rise to nearly 25% when the tariffs are fully implemented April 9, economists estimate, higher than it has been in more than a century and higher than the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs that are widely blamed for worsening the Great Recession. Economists note that the United States engages in much more trade now than it did then.

“The president just announced the de facto separation of the U.S. economy from the global economy,” said Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Relations. “The stage is set for higher prices and slower growth over the long term."

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, in an interview on CNBC Thursday, said the policies will help open markets overseas for U.S. exports.

“I expect most countries to start to really examine their trade policy towards the United States of America, and stop picking on us,” he said. ”This is the reordering of fair trade.”

Americans, so far, appear to have mixed feelings.

Bob Lehmann, 73, stopped by a Best Buy in Portland, Oregon, to buy a keyboard Wednesday. He opposed the tariffs. “They’re going to raise prices and cause people to pay more for daily living,” he said.

Mathew Hall, a 64-year-old paint contractor, said he thought the tariffs were a “great idea” and that potential price increases in the short term were worth it.

“I believe in the long term, it’s going to be good,” he said, adding that he felt the U.S. had been taken advantage of.

But a former trade official from Trump’s first term, speaking to reporters on condition of anonymity Thursday to talk candidly about the impact, suggested that Americans, including those who voted for Trump, may have difficulty accepting the stiff duties.

Americans “have never faced tariffs like this,” the former official said. “The downstream impact on clothing and shoe stores, it’s going to be pretty significant. So we’ll have to see how the Trump voters view this ... and how long their support for these policies goes.”

Some exporters overseas may cut their prices to offset some of the tariffs, and U.S. retailers could eat some of the cost as well. But most economists do expect much of the tariffs to feed through to higher prices.

The tariffs will hit many Asian countries particularly hard, with duties on Vietnamese imports rising to 46% and on goods from Indonesia to 32%. Tariffs on some Chinese imports will now be as high as 79%. Those three countries are the top sources of U.S. shoe imports, with Nike making about half its shoes last year and one-third of its clothes in Vietnam.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates all Trump’s tariffs this year will push clothing prices 17% higher.

On Thursday, the Home Furnishings Association, which represents more than 13,000 U.S. furniture stores, predicted that the tariffs will increase prices between 10% and 46%. Vietnam and China are the top furniture exporters to the U.S.

The association said manufacturers in Asia are offsetting some of the costs by discounting their products and lowering ocean freight rates, but that won't be enough to avoid price hikes. Even domestically made furniture often relies on imported components, the association said.

“While many in the industry support the long-term goal of reshoring manufacturing, the reality is that it will take at least a decade to scale domestic production,” Home Furnishings Association CEO Shannon Williams said in a statement. “Permitting, training a skilled workforce and managing the higher costs of U.S. manufacturing are significant hurdles.”

Outside a Tractor Supply store in Castle Rock, south of Denver, two family members on opposite sides of the political spectrum debated the tariffs.

Chris Theisen, 62 and a Republican, was enthused about the tariffs, arguing the measures could bring jobs to America. “I feel a good change coming on, I feel it’s going to be hard, but you don’t go to the gym and walk away and say, ’God, I feel great,” he said.

Nayen Shakya, a Democrat and Theisen’s great nephew, said higher prices are already a hardship. At the restaurant where he works, menu prices have been raised to account for higher cost of ingredients, specifically rice, in recent weeks.

“It’s really easy sometimes to say some things in a vague way that everyone can agree with that is definitely more complex under the surface,” said Shakya. "The burden of the increased prices is already going to the consumer.”

Listening to his nephew, Theisen added, “I understand this side of it, too,” he said, motioning to Shakya. “I ain’t got no crystal ball. I hope it works out good.”

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AP Writers Paul Wiseman, Jesse Bedayn, Dee-Ann Durbin, and Claire Rush contributed to this report. Rush reported from Portland, Durbin from Detroit, and Bedayn from Colorado.